Comportamento da produção e dos preços de bovinos de corte na Amazônia Brasileira.

Abstract

This study evaluates the production behavior and prices in the beef cattle industry in the Brazilian Amazon. We used time series data obtained from various sources and employed multiple regression and polynomial regression analysis. For the price analysis, we used the classical time series model and separated the seasonal and cyclic indices based on the 12-month centered moving average. The analyses covered the period from 1990 to 2015, when the regional cattle population grew at a rate of 5% per year, compared to the national growth rate of 1.7%. The price analysis reveals the existence of cycles in regional cattle ranching, defined mainly by an inverse correlation between the price of fattened cattle and the slaughter of matrices. As for the variables determining the growth of the cattle population, we find that rural credit policy assumes an important role in enabling the supply of resources for financing livestock projects that are more popular than investments in agriculture. The creation and structuring of state agricultural defense agencies in the late 1990s represents an important measure in the institutional sphere, as the implementation of animal health policies and programs has generated a favorable environment for the expansion of investments in meat production and processing, in addition to opening up opportunities for trade in the domestic and international markets.