Avaliação de efeitos de curto e longo prazo na produção e preço na exportação cacaueira brasileira.

Abstract

Brazil is the seventh largest cocoa producer in the world and the 17th world exporter of the commodity. Although it represents a small share of this market at an international level, Brazilian cocoa farming has high socioeconomic importance in the domestic market, in addition to great development potential, due to the growth of its production chain and the sustainable expansion of cocoa. The Brazilian cocoa market has undergone transformations, since our country was once the world's largest producer of the crop and currently, due to a serious structural crisis that began with witches' broom contamination, it needs to import cocoa beans to supply the national industry. Seeking to better understand this scenario, this work aimed to verify the dynamics of how price and production have influenced Brazilian cocoa exports in recent decades. The data used in the work were obtained from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), ComexStat and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), for the period from 1994 to 2020. Tests of stationarity and cointegration of the series were performed. and the Vector Error Correction (VECM) model was used to determine the short-term and long-term relationships. Regarding the results, it was observed that the variables Cocoa Export (EXP), Cocoa Quantity Produced (QPC) and Average Cocoa Price (PMC) are cointegrated. The adjustment coefficient revealed that cocoa market imbalances are adjusted at a rate of 56.2% per year. In the short term, it was noted that the lagged price and production positively influence contemporary cocoa exports. It is recommended, for future research purposes, the inclusion of more explanatory variables in the model, complementing the study and contributing to the formulation of public policies.